How corona virus could affect Australia population in up comming years

First, we undertook a review of the academic literature on demographic responses to shocks. Secondly, we reviewed historical data, to understand the impact of past shocks on the various components of demographic change in Australia. Thirdly, we surveyed Australian demographers on the likely impact of COVID-19 on international and internal migration.

Three scenarios for a future Australia.

Our model then produced three scenarios. Light impact: assumes net overseas migration recovers quickly in late 2020. Interstate migration drops slightly in 2019-2020, before rebounding in 2020-21. Fertility is also assumed to dip in 2020-21, before quickly recovering. 

Moderate impact:

Assumes net overseas migration falls substantially in 2020-21, before recovering over the next few years. Interstate migration drops sharply over the next two years, before returning to the long-run average. Fertility falls this financial year and does not fully recover until the late-2020s.

Severe impact:

Assumes net overseas migration plummets to zero in 2020-21 and takes eight years to return to the long-run average. Interstate migration plummets by up to a third over the next two years, before slowly recovering. Fertility drops to historic lows and takes a decade to recover to the long-run value.

In all three scenarios, life expectancy at birth is assumed to continue its long-run upward trajectory.It is tempting to nominate a “most likely” scenario here. But uncertainty about the duration and scale of COVID-19 and the restrictions around it, makes this unfeasible. The best option currently available to demographers is to develop scenarios that model a range of plausible population futures.

Possible 4% drop in expected population
Based on the modelled scenarios, COVID-19 is expected to have a measurable and persistent impact on Australia’s population.

Under the severe scenario, Australia’s population will reach 26.6 million by 2025, 29 million by 2030 and 31.8 million by 2040. This is 1.4 million or 4% fewer than our “no pandemic” scenario.

Under the light scenario, Australia’s population will be 180,000 people fewer by 2040. Under the moderate scenario, we will be down 580,000 people.
Australia’s total population under light, moderate, severe and ‘no’ pandemic scenarios. Source: Elin Charles-Edwards and colleagues.
The impact of COVID-19 will be felt most strongly in the short-term. Annual population growth would have been 1.38% in 2020-21 without the pandemic. This will be just 0.41% under the severe impact scenario. Such a drop in annual population growth was last seen in 1916 due to World War I. Even during the Great Depression, annual growth remained above 0.70%.

States and territories.

Our modelling showed different impacts on population growth across Australia. In large part, this is due to the concentration of immigration arrivals in Sydney and Melbourne, as well as an internal migration system that relocates population away from New South Wales and into Queensland and Victoria.

So, the largest impact on population numbers will be in NSW and Victoria, followed by Queensland and Western Australia.

If the severe scenario comes to pass, the population of NSW will be almost half a million people fewer by 2040 than without the pandemic. Victoria will see a drop of 400,000, Queensland will be down by about 200,000 and WA down by more than 160,000 people.

Despite smaller population sizes, the impact of the pandemic on population ageing appears to be relatively modest. The proportion of Australians aged 65 and over will reach 20.8% under the severe scenario, compared to 20% without the pandemic.